Search Results for "the-next-100-years-a-forecast-for-the-21st-century"

The Next 100 Years

The Next 100 Years

A Forecast for the 21st Century

  • Author: George Friedman
  • Publisher: Anchor
  • ISBN: 9780385522946
  • Category: Political Science
  • Page: 288
  • View: 6643
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China fragments, a new Cold War with Russia, Mexcio challenges U.S., the new great powers Turkey, Poland and Japan. The Next 100 Years is a fascinating, eye-opening and often shocking look at what lies ahead for the U.S. and the world from one of our most incisive futurists. In his provocative book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including: • The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia. • China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power. • A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly. • Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications. • The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century. Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead. For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.Stratfor.com

The Next Decade

The Next Decade

Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going

  • Author: George Friedman
  • Publisher: Anchor
  • ISBN: 0385532954
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: 352
  • View: 2958
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The author of the acclaimed New York Times bestseller The Next 100 Years now focuses his geopolitical forecasting acumen on the next decade and the imminent events and challenges that will test America and the world, specifically addressing the skills that will be required by the decade’s leaders. In the long view, history is seen as a series of events—but the course of those events is determined by individuals and their actions. During the next ten years, individual leaders will face significant transitions for their nations: the United States’ relationships with Iran and Israel will be undergoing changes, China will likely confront a major crisis, and the wars in the Islamic world will subside. Unexpected energy and technology developments will emerge, and labor shortages will begin to matter more than financial crises. Distinguished geopolitical forecaster George Friedman analyzes these events from the perspectives of the men and women leading these global changes, focusing in particular on the American president, who will require extraordinary skills to shepherd the United States through this transitional period. The Next Decade is a provocative and fascinating look at the conflicts and opportunities that lie ahead.

Flashpoints

Flashpoints

The Emerging Crisis in Europe

  • Author: George Friedman
  • Publisher: Anchor
  • ISBN: 0385536348
  • Category: Political Science
  • Page: 288
  • View: 8575
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A major new book by New York Times bestselling author and geopolitical forecaster George Friedman (The Next 100 Years), with a bold thesis about coming events in Europe. This provocative work examines “flashpoints,” unique geopolitical hot spots where tensions have erupted throughout history, and where conflict is due to emerge again. “There is a temptation, when you are around George Friedman, to treat him like a Magic 8 Ball.” —The New York Times Magazine With remarkable accuracy, George Friedman has forecasted coming trends in global politics, technology, population, and culture. In Flashpoints, Friedman focuses on Europe—the world’s cultural and power nexus for the past five hundred years . . . until now. Analyzing the most unstable, unexpected, and fascinating borderlands of Europe and Russia—and the fault lines that have existed for centuries and have been ground zero for multiple catastrophic wars—Friedman highlights, in an unprecedentedly personal way, the flashpoints that are smoldering once again. The modern-day European Union was crafted in large part to minimize built-in geopolitical tensions that historically have torn it apart. As Friedman demonstrates, with a mix of rich history and cultural analysis, that design is failing. Flashpoints narrates a living history of Europe and explains, with great clarity, its most volatile regions: the turbulent and ever-shifting land dividing the West from Russia (a vast area that currently includes Ukraine, Belarus, and Lithuania); the ancient borderland between France and Germany; and the Mediterranean, which gave rise to Judaism and Christianity and became a center of Islamic life. Through Friedman’s seamless narrative of townspeople and rivers and villages, a clear picture of regions and countries and history begins to emerge. Flashpoints is an engrossing analysis of modern-day Europe, its remarkable past, and the simmering fault lines that have awakened and will be pivotal in the near future. This is George Friedman’s most timely and, ultimately, riveting book. From the Hardcover edition.

America's Secret War

America's Secret War

Inside The Hidden Worldwide Struggle Between The United States And Its Enemies

  • Author: George Friedman
  • Publisher: Anchor Books
  • ISBN: 0767917855
  • Category: Political Science
  • Page: 362
  • View: 4339
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A founder of a leading private intelligence company offers a geopolitical, inside analysis of the truth about America's true foreign policy in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other locations around the world, examining covert and overt efforts in the global war against terrorism, the unreported factors that led to the invasion of Iraq, and other important events. Reprint. 20,000 first printing.

The World in 2050

The World in 2050

Four Forces Shaping Civilization's Northern Future

  • Author: Laurence C. Smith
  • Publisher: Penguin
  • ISBN: 1101443529
  • Category: Science
  • Page: 336
  • View: 6749
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A vivid forecast of our planet in the year 2050 by a rising star in geoscience, distilling cutting-edge research into four global forces: demographic trends, natural resource demand, climate change, and globalization. The world's population is exploding, wild species are vanishing, our environment is degrading, and the costs of resources from oil to water are going nowhere but up. So what kind of world are we leaving for our children and grandchildren? Geoscientist and Guggenheim fellow Laurence Smith draws on the latest global modeling research to construct a sweeping thought experiment on what our world will be like in 2050. The result is both good news and bad: Eight nations of the Arctic Rim (including the United States) will become increasingly prosperous, powerful, and politically stable, while those closer to the equator will face water shortages, aging populations, and crowded megacities sapped by the rising costs of energy and coastal flooding. The World in 2050 combines the lessons of geography and history with state-of-the-art model projections and analytical data-everything from climate dynamics and resource stocks to age distributions and economic growth projections. But Smith offers more than a compendium of statistics and studies- he spent fifteen months traveling the Arctic Rim, collecting stories and insights that resonate throughout the book. It is an approach much like Jared Diamond took in Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse, a work of geoscientific investigation rich in the appreciation of human diversity. Packed with stunning photographs, original maps, and informative tables, this is the most authoritative, balanced, and compelling account available of the world of challenges and opportunities that we will leave for our children.

The Next Decade

The Next Decade

Empire and Republic in a Changing World

  • Author: George Friedman
  • Publisher: Anchor
  • ISBN: 0307476391
  • Category: Political Science
  • Page: 243
  • View: 4912
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Makes predictions about the imminent challenges that will test America and the world of the near future, forecasting such events as an economic crisis in China and a transition from financial problems to labor shortages.

The next one hundred years

The next one hundred years

shaping the fate of our living earth

  • Author: Jonathan Weiner
  • Publisher: Bantam
  • ISBN: 9780553352283
  • Category: Nature
  • Page: 312
  • View: 1805
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The author examines the threat of the greenhouse effect on the planet, the hole in the ozone layer, and the decimation of forests, and details the steps necessary to reverse these disasters

2052

2052

A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years

  • Author: Jorgen Randers
  • Publisher: Chelsea Green Publishing
  • ISBN: 1603584226
  • Category: Social Science
  • Page: 416
  • View: 2651
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Forty years ago, The Limits to Growth study addressed the grand question of how humans would adapt to the physical limitations of planet Earth. It predicted that during the first half of the 21st century the ongoing growth in the human ecological footprint would stop-either through catastrophic "overshoot and collapse"-or through well-managed "peak and decline." So, where are we now? And what does our future look like? In the book 2052, Jorgen Randers, one of the coauthors of Limits to Growth, issues a progress report and makes a forecast for the next forty years. To do this, he asked dozens of experts to weigh in with their best predictions on how our economies, energy supplies, natural resources, climate, food, fisheries, militaries, political divisions, cities, psyches, and more will take shape in the coming decades. He then synthesized those scenarios into a global forecast of life as we will most likely know it in the years ahead. The good news: we will see impressive advances in resource efficiency, and an increasing focus on human well-being rather than on per capita income growth. But this change might not come as we expect. Future growth in population and GDP, for instance, will be constrained in surprising ways-by rapid fertility decline as result of increased urbanization, productivity decline as a result of social unrest, and continuing poverty among the poorest 2 billion world citizens. Runaway global warming, too, is likely. So, how do we prepare for the years ahead? With heart, fact, and wisdom, Randers guides us along a realistic path into the future and discusses what readers can do to ensure a better life for themselves and their children during the increasing turmoil of the next forty years.

The Accidental Superpower

The Accidental Superpower

The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder

  • Author: Peter Zeihan
  • Publisher: Twelve
  • ISBN: 1455583677
  • Category: Political Science
  • Page: 352
  • View: 5224
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In the bestselling tradition of The World Is Flat and The Next 100 Years, THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER will be a much discussed, contrarian, and eye-opening assessment of American power. Near the end of the Second World War, the United States made a bold strategic gambit that rewired the international system. Empires were abolished and replaced by a global arrangement enforced by the U.S. Navy. With all the world's oceans safe for the first time in history, markets and resources were made available for everyone. Enemies became partners. We think of this system as normal-it is not. We live in an artificial world on borrowed time. In THE ACCIDENTAL SUPERPOWER, international strategist Peter Zeihan examines how the hard rules of geography are eroding the American commitment to free trade; how much of the planet is aging into a mass retirement that will enervate markets and capital supplies; and how, against all odds, it is the ever-ravenous American economy that-alone among the developed nations-is rapidly approaching energy independence. Combined, these factors are doing nothing less than overturning the global system and ushering in a new (dis)order. For most, that is a disaster-in-waiting, but not for the Americans. The shale revolution allows Americans to sidestep an increasingly dangerous energy market. Only the United States boasts a youth population large enough to escape the sucking maw of global aging. Most important, geography will matter more than ever in a de-globalizing world, and America's geography is simply sublime.

The Revenge of Geography

The Revenge of Geography

What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate

  • Author: Robert D. Kaplan
  • Publisher: Random House Incorporated
  • ISBN: 1400069831
  • Category: Political Science
  • Page: 403
  • View: 1718
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The best-selling author of Balkan Ghosts presents a timely and provocative response to The World Is Flat that draws on the insights of leading geographers and geopolitical thinkers to present a holistic interpretation of the next cycle of conflict throughout Eurasia that considers such topics as European debt, Chinese power and the role of Iran.

One Word That Will Change Your Life, Expanded Edition

One Word That Will Change Your Life, Expanded Edition

  • Author: Jon Gordon,Dan Britton,Jimmy Page
  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
  • ISBN: 1118828488
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: 112
  • View: 9915
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The guide to creating simplicity in your world and developing a discipline for life, now in a full-color, expanded edition One Word explains how to simplify your life and business by focusing on just ONE WORD for the entire year. The simplicity of choosing one word makes it a catalyst for life-change. Clutter and complexity lead to procrastination and paralysis, while simplicity and focus lead to success and clarity. By celebrated authors Dan Britton, Jimmy Page, and Jon Gordon, One Word That Will Change Your Life shows you how to cut through to the core of your intention for the next year. It offers an action plan and simple process to discover your word for the year. It also explains how your one word will impact the six dimensions of your life—mental, physical, emotional, relational, spiritual, and financial. This beautifully illustrated full-color Second Edition includes even more stories demonstrating the impact of embracing the One Word call to action. It explores the legacy of taking a focused approach to your life and outlines six new dimensions to the Action Plan. Includes additional material on developing the One Word for teams and families, specifically how a group of people can also have a One Word Demonstrates how to establish a simple, disciplined, and focused approach to the next year of your life Discover how to create simplicity in your world and develop a discipline for life through the power of One Word.

In 100 Years

In 100 Years

Leading Economists Predict the Future

  • Author: Ignacio Palacios-Huerta
  • Publisher: MIT Press
  • ISBN: 0262026910
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: 195
  • View: 3046
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This pithy and engaging volume shows that economists may be better equipped to predict the future than science fiction writers. Economists' ideas, based on both theory and practice, reflect their knowledge of the laws of human interactions as well as years of experimentation and reflection. Although perhaps not as screenplay-ready as a work of fiction, these economists' predictions are ready for their close-ups. In this book, ten prominent economists -- including Nobel laureates and several likely laureates -- offer their ideas about the world of the twenty-second century. In scenarios that range from the optimistic to the guardedly gloomy, these thinkers consider such topics as the transformation of work and wages, the continuing increase in inequality, the economic rise of China and India, the endlessly repeating cycle of crisis and (projected) recovery, the benefits of technology, the economic consequences of political extremism, and the long-range effects of climate change. For example, Daron Acemoglu offers a thoughtful discussion of how trends of the last century -- including uneven growth, technological integration, and resource scarcity -- might translate into the next; 2013 Nobelist Robert Shiller provides an innovative view of future risk management methods using information technology; 2012 Nobelist Alvin Roth projects his theory of Matching Markets into the next century, focusing on schools, jobs, marriage and family, and medicine; 1987 Nobelist Robert Solow considers the shift away from remunerated labor, among other subjects; and Martin Weitzman raises the intriguing but alarming possibility of using geoengineering techniques to mitigate the nevitable effects of climate change. In a 1930 essay mentioned by several contributors, "Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren," John Maynard Keynes offered predictions that, read today, range from absolutely correct to spectacularly wrong. This book follows in Keynes's path, hoping, perhaps, to better his average.

Foreign Policy Begins at Home

Foreign Policy Begins at Home

The Case for Putting America's House in Order

  • Author: Richard N. Haass
  • Publisher: Basic Books
  • ISBN: 0465038646
  • Category: Political Science
  • Page: 224
  • View: 8516
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A rising China, climate change, terrorism, a nuclear Iran, a turbulent Middle East, and a reckless North Korea all present serious challenges to America's national security. But it depends even more on the United States addressing its burgeoning deficit and debt, crumbling infrastructure, second class schools, and outdated immigration system. While there is currently no great rival power threatening America directly, how long this strategic respite lasts, according to Council on Foreign Relations President Richard N. Haass, will depend largely on whether the United States puts its own house in order. Haass lays out a compelling vision for restoring America's power, influence, and ability to lead the world and advocates for a new foreign policy of Restoration that would require the US to limit its involvement in both wars of choice, and humanitarian interventions. Offering essential insight into our world of continual unrest, this new edition addresses the major foreign and domestic debates since hardcover publication, including US intervention in Syria, the balance between individual privacy and collective security, and the continuing impact of the sequester.

The Future of War

The Future of War

Power, Technology and American World Dominance in the Twenty-first Century

  • Author: George Friedman,Meredith Friedman
  • Publisher: St. Martin's Griffin
  • ISBN: 9780312181000
  • Category: Technology & Engineering
  • Page: 272
  • View: 5060
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The Future of War makes a brilliant case that the twenty-first century, even more than the twentieth, will be the American century, and that America's global dominance will be associated with a revolution in weaponry and warfare as basic as the one that arose with the development of gunpowder five hundred years ago. From the era of flintlocks and cannons to the day of automatic weapons and heavy artillery, the waging of war-while undeniably changing in many aspects-has continued to rely on the technology that began with the use of black powder to expel a projectile through a tube. In The Future of War, the authors argue that this Age of Ballistics is ending and we are entering a fundamentally new period, the Age of Precision-Guided Munitions (PGMs), the so-called smart weapons that will antiquate the traditional way of making war. Where guns and artillery are inherently inaccurate and need to be fired thousands of times to hit one target, these new projectiles are precise and lethally efficient; while ballistic weapons platforms must be brought within range of the battlefield, PGMs can devastate from any distance. The authors show how the innovations in weapons technology will affect America's defense strategies on land and sea, in air and in space, reshaping our military forces, while confronting us with new strategic challenges as America enters the twenty-first century as the dominant power on the globe.

How Civilizations Die

How Civilizations Die

(And Why Islam Is Dying Too)

  • Author: David Goldman
  • Publisher: Simon and Schuster
  • ISBN: 1596982802
  • Category: Political Science
  • Page: 256
  • View: 5162
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Thanks to collapsing birthrates, much of Europe is on a path of willed self-extinction. The untold story is that birthrates in Muslim nations are declining faster than anywhere elseâ??at a rate never before documented. Europe, even in its decline, may have the resources to support an aging population, if at a terrible economic and cultural cost. But in the impoverished Islamic world, an aging population means a civilization on the brink of total collapseâ?? something Islamic terrorists know and fear. Muslim decline poses new threats to America, challenges we cannot even understand, much less face effectively, without a wholly new kind of political analysis that explains how desperate peoples and nations behave. In How Civilizations Die, David P. Goldman, author of the celebrated Spengler column read by intelligence organizations world wide, ??reveals how, almost unnoticed, massive shifts in global power are remaking our future.

Constraint Theory

Constraint Theory

Multidimensional Mathematical Model Management

  • Author: George Friedman
  • Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
  • ISBN: 9780387276502
  • Category: Mathematics
  • Page: 188
  • View: 9214
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At first glance, this might appear to be a book on mathematics, but it is really intended for the practical engineer who wishes to gain greater control of the multidimensional mathematical models which are increasingly an important part of his environment. Another feature of the book is that it attempts to balance left- and right-brain perceptions; the author has noticed that many graph theory books are disturbingly light on actual topological pictures of their material. One thing that this book is not is a depiction of the Theory of Constraints, as defined by Eliyahu Goldratt in the 1980’s. Constraint Theory was originally defined by the author in his PhD dissertation in 1967 and subsequent papers written over the following decade. It strives to employ more of a mathematical foundation to complexity than the Theory of Constraints. This merely attempts to differentiate this book from Goldratt’s work, not demean his efforts. After all, the main body of work in the field of 1 Systems Engineering is still largely qualitative .

The Dumbest Generation

The Dumbest Generation

How the Digital Age Stupefies Young Americans and Jeopardizes Our Future(Or, Don 't Trust Anyone Under 30)

  • Author: Mark Bauerlein
  • Publisher: Penguin
  • ISBN: 1440636893
  • Category: Social Science
  • Page: 272
  • View: 8830
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This shocking, surprisingly entertaining romp into the intellectual nether regions of today's underthirty set reveals the disturbing and, ultimately, incontrovertible truth: cyberculture is turning us into a society of know-nothings. The Dumbest Generation is a dire report on the intellectual life of young adults and a timely warning of its impact on American democracy and culture. For decades, concern has been brewing about the dumbed-down popular culture available to young people and the impact it has on their futures. But at the dawn of the digital age, many thought they saw an answer: the internet, email, blogs, and interactive and hyper-realistic video games promised to yield a generation of sharper, more aware, and intellectually sophisticated children. The terms “information superhighway” and “knowledge economy” entered the lexicon, and we assumed that teens would use their knowledge and understanding of technology to set themselves apart as the vanguards of this new digital era. That was the promise. But the enlightenment didn’t happen. The technology that was supposed to make young adults more aware, diversify their tastes, and improve their verbal skills has had the opposite effect. According to recent reports from the National Endowment for the Arts, most young people in the United States do not read literature, visit museums, or vote. They cannot explain basic scientific methods, recount basic American history, name their local political representatives, or locate Iraq or Israel on a map. The Dumbest Generation: How the Digital Age Stupefies Young Americans and Jeopardizes Our Future is a startling examination of the intellectual life of young adults and a timely warning of its impact on American culture and democracy. Over the last few decades, how we view adolescence itself has changed, growing from a pitstop on the road to adulthood to its own space in society, wholly separate from adult life. This change in adolescent culture has gone hand in hand with an insidious infantilization of our culture at large; as adolescents continue to disengage from the adult world, they have built their own, acquiring more spending money, steering classrooms and culture towards their own needs and interests, and now using the technology once promoted as the greatest hope for their futures to indulge in diversions, from MySpace to multiplayer video games, 24/7. Can a nation continue to enjoy political and economic predominance if its citizens refuse to grow up? Drawing upon exhaustive research, personal anecdotes, and historical and social analysis, The Dumbest Generation presents a portrait of the young American mind at this critical juncture, and lays out a compelling vision of how we might address its deficiencies. The Dumbest Generation pulls no punches as it reveals the true cost of the digital age—and our last chance to fix it.

Geopolitics

Geopolitics

The Geography of International Relations

  • Author: Saul Bernard Cohen
  • Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
  • ISBN: 1442223510
  • Category: Social Science
  • Page: 504
  • View: 6556
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Written by one of the world’s leading political geographers, this fully revised and updated textbook examines the dramatic changes wrought by ideological, economic, sociocultural, and demographic changes unleashed since the end of the Cold War. Saul Cohen considers these forces in the context of their human and physical settings and explores their geographical influence on foreign policy and international relations.

The Rise and Fall of American Growth

The Rise and Fall of American Growth

The U.S. Standard of Living since the Civil War

  • Author: Robert J. Gordon
  • Publisher: Princeton University Press
  • ISBN: 1400888956
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: 784
  • View: 2466
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In the century after the Civil War, an economic revolution improved the American standard of living in ways previously unimaginable. Electric lighting, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, and television transformed households and workplaces. But has that era of unprecedented growth come to an end? Weaving together a vivid narrative, historical anecdotes, and economic analysis, The Rise and Fall of American Growth challenges the view that economic growth will continue unabated, and demonstrates that the life-altering scale of innovations between 1870 and 1970 cannot be repeated. Robert Gordon contends that the nation's productivity growth will be further held back by the headwinds of rising inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and the rising debt of college students and the federal government, and that we must find new solutions. A critical voice in the most pressing debates of our time, The Rise and Fall of American Growth is at once a tribute to a century of radical change and a harbinger of tougher times to come.