Search Results for "the-norm-chronicles-stories-and-numbers-about-danger"

The Norm Chronicles

The Norm Chronicles

Stories and Numbers About Danger and Death

  • Author: Michael Blastland,David Spiegelhalter
  • Publisher: Basic Books
  • ISBN: 0465085695
  • Category: Science
  • Page: 384
  • View: 7916
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A statistician and a journalist reveal the real story behind the statistics on risk, chance, and choice

The Norm Chronicles

The Norm Chronicles

Stories and numbers about danger

  • Author: David Spiegelhalter,Michael Blastland
  • Publisher: Profile Books
  • ISBN: 1847658296
  • Category: Science
  • Page: 328
  • View: 7451
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Meet Norm. He's 31, 5'9", just over 13 stone, and works a 39 hour week. He likes a drink, doesn't do enough exercise and occasionally treats himself to a bar of chocolate (milk). He's a pretty average kind of guy. In fact, he is the average guy in this clever and unusual take on statistical risk, chance, and how these two factors affect our everyday choices. Watch as Norm (who, like all average specimens, feels himself to be uniquely special), and his friends careful Prudence and reckless Kelvin, turns to statistics to help him in life's endless series of choices - should I fly or take the train? Have a baby? Another drink? Or another sausage? Do a charity skydive or get a lift on a motorbike? Because chance and risk aren't just about numbers - it's about what we believe, who we trust and how we feel about the world around us. From a world expert in risk and the bestselling author of The Tiger That Isn't (and creator of BBC Radio 4's More or Less), this is a commonsense (and wildly entertaining) guide to personal risk and decoding the statistics that represent it.

The Norm Chronicles

The Norm Chronicles

Risk and Uncertainty

  • Author: Michael Blastland,David Spiegelhalter
  • Publisher: N.A
  • ISBN: 9781846686214
  • Category: Probabilities
  • Page: 336
  • View: 8081
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Meet Norm. He's 31, 5'9", just over 13 stone, and works a 39 hour week. He likes a drink, doesn't do enough exercise and occasionally treats himself to a bar of chocolate (milk). He's a pretty average kind of guy. In fact, he is the average guy in this clever and unusual take on statistical risk, chance, and how these two factors affect our everyday choices. Watch as Norm (who, like all average specimens, feels himself to be uniquely special), and his friends careful Prudence and reckless Kelvin, turns to statistics to help him in life's endless series of choices - should I fly or take the train? Have a baby? Another drink? Or another sausage? Do a charity skydive or get a lift on a motorbike?Because chance and risk aren't just about numbers - it's about what we believe, who we trust and how we feel about the world around us. What we do, or don't do, has as much do with gut instinct as hard facts, with enjoyment as understanding. If you've ever wondered what the statistics in tabloid scare stories really mean, how dangerous horse-riding is compared to class-A drugs, or what governs coincidence, you will find it all here.From a world expert in risk and the bestselling author of The Tiger That Isn't (and creator of BBC Radio 4's More or Less), this is a commonsense (and wildly entertaining) guide to personal risk and decoding the statistics that represent it.

The Tiger That Isn't

The Tiger That Isn't

Seeing Through a World of Numbers

  • Author: Andrew Dilnot,Michael Blastland
  • Publisher: Profile Books
  • ISBN: 1847650791
  • Category: Mathematics
  • Page: 192
  • View: 1626
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Mathematics scares and depresses most of us, but politicians, journalists and everyone in power use numbers all the time to bamboozle us. Most maths is really simple - as easy as 2+2 in fact. Better still it can be understood without any jargon, any formulas - and in fact not even many numbers. Most of it is commonsense, and by using a few really simple principles one can quickly see when maths, statistics and numbers are being abused to play tricks - or create policies - which can waste millions of pounds. It is liberating to understand when numbers are telling the truth or being used to lie, whether it is health scares, the costs of government policies, the supposed risks of certain activities or the real burden of taxes.

The Cabinet of Wonders

The Cabinet of Wonders

The Kronos Chronicles:

  • Author: Marie Rutkoski
  • Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux (BYR)
  • ISBN: 9781429930000
  • Category: Juvenile Fiction
  • Page: 272
  • View: 1794
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Marie Rutkoski's startling debut novel, the first book in the Kronos Chronicles, about the risks we take to protect those we love, brims with magic, political intrigue, and heroism. Petra Kronos has a simple, happy life. But it's never been ordinary. She has a pet tin spider named Astrophil who likes to hide in her snarled hair and give her advice. Her best friend can trap lightning inside a glass sphere. Petra also has a father in faraway Prague who is able to move metal with his mind. He has been commissioned by the prince of Bohemia to build the world's finest astronomical clock. Petra's life is forever changed when, one day, her father returns home – blind. The prince has stolen his eyes, enchanted them, and now wears them. But why? Petra doesn't know, but she knows this: she will go to Prague, sneak into Salamander Castle, and steal her father's eyes back. Joining forces with Neel, whose fingers extend into invisible ghosts that pick locks and pockets, Petra finds that many people in the castle are not what they seem, and that her father's clock has powers capable of destroying their world. The Cabinet of Wonders is a 2009 Bank Street - Best Children's Book of the Year.

Dicing with Death

Dicing with Death

Chance, Risk and Health

  • Author: Stephen Senn
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press
  • ISBN: 1139438999
  • Category: Mathematics
  • Page: N.A
  • View: 8076
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If you think that statistics has nothing to say about what you do or how you could do it better, then you are either wrong or in need of a more interesting job. Stephen Senn explains here how statistics determines many decisions about medical care, from allocating resources for health, to determining which drugs to license, to cause-and-effect in relation to disease. He tackles big themes: clinical trials and the development of medicines, life tables, vaccines and their risks or lack of them, smoking and lung cancer and even the power of prayer. He entertains with puzzles and paradoxes and covers the lives of famous statistical pioneers. By the end of the book the reader will see how reasoning with probability is essential to making rational decisions in medicine, and how and when it can guide us when faced with choices that impact on our health and even life.

Sex by Numbers

Sex by Numbers

  • Author: David Spiegelhalter
  • Publisher: N.A
  • ISBN: 9781781253298
  • Category: Social Science
  • Page: 368
  • View: 8762
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Whatever society we live in, and however open-minded we like to think we are, when it comes to our sex lives we all like to keep a few secrets. But this makes the jobs of sexologists - professionals who study sexual behaviour - pretty difficult.Luckily, David Spiegelhalter, Professor of Risk at Cambridge University, is here to unravel the web of exaggerations, misdirections and downright lies that surround sex in modern society. Drawing on the Natsal survey, the widest survey of sexual behaviour since the Kinsey Report, he answers crucial questions such as what are we all doing? How often? And how has it changed?Accompanying a major Wellcome exhibition on the same subject, Sex by Numbers is an informed and entertaining look at the most enduring of human obsessions, from one-night stands to the seven-year itch.

Risk: A Very Short Introduction

Risk: A Very Short Introduction

  • Author: Baruch Fischhoff,John Kadvany
  • Publisher: Oxford University Press
  • ISBN: 0199576203
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: 162
  • View: 2489
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Risks are everywhere. They come from many sources, including crime, diseases, accidents, terror, climate change, finance, and intimacy. They arise from our own acts and they are imposed on us. In this Very Short Introduction Fischhoff and Kadvany draw on both the sciences and humanities to show what all risks have in common. Do we care about losing money, health, reputation, or peace of mind? How much do we care about things happening now or in the future? To ourselves or to others? All risks require thinking hard about what matters to us before we make decisions about them based on past experience, scientific knowledge, and future uncertainties. Using conceptual frameworks such as decision theory and behavioural decision research, we examine the science and practice of creating measures of risk and look at how scientists apply probability by combining historical records, scientific theories, and expert judgement. Showing what science has learned about how people deal with risks, and applying these to diverse everyday examples, the authors demonstrate how we move from understanding a risk to making a choice in everyday life.

Dragons of the Valley

Dragons of the Valley

A Novel

  • Author: Donita K. Paul
  • Publisher: WaterBrook
  • ISBN: 030745911X
  • Category: Young Adult Fiction
  • Page: 400
  • View: 1417
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War threatens the peaceful land of Chiril… can one painter-turned-reluctant-swordsman really help? With an invasion of her country imminent, Tipper Schope is drawn into a mission to keep three important statues from falling into the enemy’s clutches. Her friend, the artist Bealomondore, helps her execute the plan, and along the way he learns to brandish a sword rather than a paintbrush. As odd disappearances and a rash of volatile behavior sweep Chiril, no one is safe. A terrible danger has made his vicious presence known: The Grawl, a hunter unlike any creature encountered before. To restore their country, Tipper, Bealomondore, and their party must hide the statues in the Valley of the Dragons and find a way to defeat the invading army. When it falls to the artistic Bealomondore to wield his sword as powerfully and naturally as a paintbrush, will he answer Wulder’s call for a champion? From the Trade Paperback edition.

Why We Disagree about Climate Change

Why We Disagree about Climate Change

Understanding Controversy, Inaction and Opportunity

  • Author: Mike Hulme
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press
  • ISBN: 1107268893
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: N.A
  • View: 8286
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Climate change is not 'a problem' waiting for 'a solution'. It is an environmental, cultural and political phenomenon which is re-shaping the way we think about ourselves, our societies and humanity's place on Earth. Drawing upon twenty-five years of professional work as an international climate change scientist and public commentator, Mike Hulme provides a unique insider's account of the emergence of this phenomenon and the diverse ways in which it is understood. He uses different standpoints from science, economics, faith, psychology, communication, sociology, politics and development to explain why we disagree about climate change. In this way he shows that climate change, far from being simply an 'issue' or a 'threat', can act as a catalyst to revise our perception of our place in the world. Why We Disagree About Climate Change is an important contribution to the ongoing debate over climate change and its likely impact on our lives.

How Change Happens

How Change Happens

  • Author: Duncan Green
  • Publisher: Oxford University Press
  • ISBN: 0198785399
  • Category: Social Science
  • Page: 192
  • View: 3901
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Human society is full of would-be "change agents," a restless mix of campaigners, lobbyists, and officials, both individuals and organizations, set on transforming the world. They want to improve public services, reform laws and regulations, guarantee human rights, get a fairer deal for those on the sharp end, achieve greater recognition for any number of issues, or simply be treated with respect. Striking then, why so many universities lack programs for social activists, to which students can turn for advice and inspiration. Instead, scholarly discussions of change are fragmented with few conversations crossing disciplinary boundaries, rarely making it onto the radar of those actively seeking change. This book bridges the gap between academia and practice, bringing together the best research from a range of academic disciplines and the evolving practical understanding of activists to explore the topic of social and political change. Drawing on many first-hand examples from the global experience of Oxfam, one of the world's largest social justice NGOs, as well as the author's insights from studying and working on international development, it tests ideas on how change happens and offers the latest thinking on what works to achieve progressive change.

Teaching Probability

Teaching Probability

  • Author: Jenny Gage,David Spiegelhalter
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press
  • ISBN: 1316605892
  • Category: Juvenile Nonfiction
  • Page: 206
  • View: 5987
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This title focuses on the approaches that can be taken in the classroom to develop skills and a conceptual understanding of probability. Written by leading subject specialists, Teaching Probability is designed to support teaching concepts in probability by providing a new approach to this difficult subject from a perspective not limited by a syllabus, giving teachers both theoretical and practical knowledge of an innovative way of teaching probability. This alternative approach to teaching probability focuses on the methods that teachers can apply to help their students engage with the topic using experiments and mathematical models to solve problems, considering how to overcome common misconceptions and the way in which probability can be communicated.

Absinthe and Flamethrowers

Absinthe and Flamethrowers

Projects and Ruminations on the Art of Living Dangerously

  • Author: William Gurstelle
  • Publisher: Chicago Review Press
  • ISBN: 1569763070
  • Category: Performing Arts
  • Page: 224
  • View: 6093
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Written for reasonable risk takers and suburban dads who want to add more excitement to their lives, this daring combination of science, history, and DIY projects explains why danger is good for you and details the art of living dangerously. All of the projects--from throwing knives, drinking absinthe, and eating fugu to cracking a bull whip, learning baritsu, and building a flamethrower--have short learning curves; are human-focused, as opposed to technology-centric; are affordable; and demonstrate true but reasonable risk. The guide maintains that risk takers are more successful, more interesting individuals who lead more fulfilling lives. "What would the world be like if Thomas Edison retired after 30 years" "working for the railroad," it asks, "instead of getting fired for blowing up a rail car with one of his experiments?" Though the manual doesn't advocate getting fired, it does reveal that making black powder is pure excitement. Unlike watching an action movie or playing a video game, real, edgy life experience changes a person. Each potentially life-altering project includes step-by-step directions and illustrations along with sidebar tips from experts in the field.

The BUGS Book

The BUGS Book

A Practical Introduction to Bayesian Analysis

  • Author: David Lunn,Chris Jackson,Nicky Best,Andrew Thomas,David Spiegelhalter
  • Publisher: CRC Press
  • ISBN: 1466586664
  • Category: Mathematics
  • Page: 399
  • View: 4894
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Bayesian statistical methods have become widely used for data analysis and modelling in recent years, and the BUGS software has become the most popular software for Bayesian analysis worldwide. Authored by the team that originally developed this software, The BUGS Book provides a practical introduction to this program and its use. The text presents complete coverage of all the functionalities of BUGS, including prediction, missing data, model criticism, and prior sensitivity. It also features a large number of worked examples and a wide range of applications from various disciplines. The book introduces regression models, techniques for criticism and comparison, and a wide range of modelling issues before going into the vital area of hierarchical models, one of the most common applications of Bayesian methods. It deals with essentials of modelling without getting bogged down in complexity. The book emphasises model criticism, model comparison, sensitivity analysis to alternative priors, and thoughtful choice of prior distributions—all those aspects of the "art" of modelling that are easily overlooked in more theoretical expositions. More pragmatic than ideological, the authors systematically work through the large range of "tricks" that reveal the real power of the BUGS software, for example, dealing with missing data, censoring, grouped data, prediction, ranking, parameter constraints, and so on. Many of the examples are biostatistical, but they do not require domain knowledge and are generalisable to a wide range of other application areas. Full code and data for examples, exercises, and some solutions can be found on the book’s website.

The Ideology of the Book of Chronicles and Its Place in Biblical Thought

The Ideology of the Book of Chronicles and Its Place in Biblical Thought

  • Author: Sara Japhet
  • Publisher: Peter Lang Pub Incorporated
  • ISBN: 9780820432649
  • Category: Religion
  • Page: 553
  • View: 2308
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Duncton Wood

Duncton Wood

  • Author: William Horwood
  • Publisher: Canelo
  • ISBN: 1911420526
  • Category: Fiction
  • Page: 750
  • View: 1788
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The epic million-copy bestseller, available as an ebook for the first time The moles of Duncton Wood live in the shadow of Mandrake, a cruel tyrant corrupted by absolute power. A solitary young mole, Bracken, is thrown into leading the fight to free Duncton Wood. Only by putting his trust in the ancient Stone, forgotten symbol of a great spiritual past, can he find the strength to challenge Mandrake’s darkness. When Bracken falls in love with Rebecca, Mandrake’s daughter, the moles must make life and death choices as their extraordinary search for freedom and truth begins... Together Bracken and Rebecca will embark on moving journey that will challenge them in ways they could never have imagined. But can they save Duncton before it’s too late? Duncton Wood is the first instalment in The Duncton Chronicles, an unforgettable six-book series now widely regarded as a fantasy classic. For readers of J.R.R. Tolkien, Brian Jacques and Richard Adams’ Watership Down, this is a quest into the heart of nature, the redemptive power of love and the triumph of spirit. The Duncton Chronicles Duncton Wood Duncton Quest Duncton Found (ebook coming soon) Praise for Duncton Wood ‘An inspiring novel... An epic in the tradition of The Lord of the Rings’ Sunday Times ‘A breathtaking achievement’ Washington Post ‘A passionate, lyrical, appealing tale... Consistently absorbing... Enchanting’ Cosmopolitan ‘A great big mole-epic with a great big theme’ Daily Mail ‘Horwood has placed his astute ear to the ground and fashioned... a modern masterpiece... Classic themes of conflict are here, good and evil, love and hate, the clash of traditional and modern values.’ Houston Chronicle ‘Destined to be a classic... A beautiful story.’ Little Rock Arkansas Gazette 'An earthy epic fantasy... The themes of power, survival, passion, courage, sacrifice, love and devotion are presented with astonishing clarity.' Los Angeles Times Book Review ‘An absolute spell-binder, by Lord of the Rings out of Watership Down. I found it enchanting, compulsive reading... I am still haunted by its beauty’ Magnus Magnusson ‘The stuff of legend... Horwood’s natural world is lyrically realised, his mole empire a delight, his romantic tale full of adventure, suspense, battle and searchings... A rich, cautionary fairy tale.’ Publishers Weekly ‘More readable and more rewarding than The Lord of the Rings’ The Times ‘Special, endearing, successful... truly touching... This is a novel for the pure-at-heart and slightly naive, for the childishness in the weary, and the children we should be having... Allegorically fabulous.’ Village Voice ‘Luxuriantly written... richly drawn, painting a detailed and loving panorama.’ Associated Press

Sunborn

Sunborn

  • Author: Jeffrey A. Carver
  • Publisher: Tor Books
  • ISBN: 9781429942195
  • Category: Fiction
  • Page: 432
  • View: 9945
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This ebook contains a new afterword by the author! With a plot inspired by chaos theory, fully realized characters, and plenty of twists and turns, this exciting hard SF adventure will keep readers on the edge of their seats. John Bandicut and several aliens and artificial intelligences have been thrown together by a force greater than themselves to prevent cataclysmic disasters on an interstellar scale. Now, before they can take a break after a world-saving mission, they are pulled into a waystation that is being threatened by highly destructive gravity waves. The waves are part of a much larger problem. Something is causing stars to become unstable and go prematurely nova--they're being murdered. When the waystation is destroyed by the gravity waves, Bandicut and his crew barely escape on a jury-rigged ship. Their destination is a star nursery in the Orion Nebula, where sentient stars are being driven to destruction by an artificial intelligence bent on remaking the cosmos in its own image. At the Publisher's request, this title is being sold without Digital Rights Management Software (DRM) applied.

Merchants of Doubt

Merchants of Doubt

How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming

  • Author: Naomi Oreskes,Erik M. Conway
  • Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing USA
  • ISBN: 1608193942
  • Category: Science
  • Page: 355
  • View: 3274
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"Anyone concerned about the state of democracy in America should read this book."-Al Gore

The Two-Mile Time Machine

The Two-Mile Time Machine

Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future

  • Author: Richard B. Alley
  • Publisher: Princeton University Press
  • ISBN: 1400852242
  • Category: Science
  • Page: 248
  • View: 7125
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In the 1990s Richard B. Alley and his colleagues made headlines with the discovery that the last ice age came to an abrupt end over a period of only three years. In The Two-Mile Time Machine, Alley tells the fascinating history of global climate changes as revealed by reading the annual rings of ice from cores drilled in Greenland. He explains that humans have experienced an unusually temperate climate compared to the wild fluctuations that characterized most of prehistory. He warns that our comfortable environment could come to an end in a matter of years and tells us what we need to know in order to understand and perhaps overcome climate changes in the future. In a new preface, the author weighs in on whether our understanding of global climate change has altered in the years since the book was first published, what the latest research tells us, and what he is working on next.

Tremblers

Tremblers

  • Author: Raquel Byrnes
  • Publisher: Pelican Ventures Book Group
  • ISBN: 1611169747
  • Category: Young Adult Fiction
  • Page: 388
  • View: 5234
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Charlotte Blackburn—Beautiful, intelligent, a gifted tinkerer—lives in a cloistered world of wealth and privilege beneath the Electric Tesla Dome that shields survivors of The Great Calamity. But when her father is abducted, and a strange sickness starts transforming men into vicious monsters, she discovers that technology is no protection at all.Ashton Wells has a dire mission: Secure Colonel Blackburn and deliver his research to The Order of the Sword and Scroll. But the plan goes awry, and he is left with nothing but the colonel's daughter who has a target on her back and is willing stop at nothing to rescue her father—including handing over to the enemy the only means to stop the monstrous plague.Branded as traitors, Ashton and Charlotte brave the treacherous floating sky ports of Outer City to hunt down the elusive inventor who is the only person able to activate the strange device that harbors the secret to their salvation.With the government closing in, a rebellion brewing in the streets, and terrifying Tremblers attacking the innocent, the two must work together to stop their fragile world from crumbling once more into destruction.