Search Results for "the-signal-and-the-noise-why-so-many-predictions-fail-but-some-don-t"

Die Berechnung der Zukunft

Die Berechnung der Zukunft

Warum die meisten Prognosen falsch sind und manche trotzdem zutreffen - Der New York Times Bestseller

  • Author: Nate Silver
  • Publisher: Heyne Verlag
  • ISBN: 3641112702
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: 656
  • View: 1192
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Zuverlässige Vorhersagen sind doch möglich! Nate Silver ist der heimliche Gewinner der amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2012: ein begnadeter Statistiker, als »Prognose-Popstar« und »Wundernerd« weltberühmt geworden. Er hat die Wahlergebnisse aller 50 amerikanischen Bundesstaaten absolut exakt vorausgesagt – doch damit nicht genug: Jetzt zeigt Nate Silver, wie seine Prognosen in Zukunft Terroranschläge, Umweltkatastrophen und Finanzkrisen verhindern sollen. Gelingt ihm die Abschaffung des Zufalls? Warum werden Wettervorhersagen immer besser, während die Terrorattacken vom 11.09.2001 niemand kommen sah? Warum erkennen Ökonomen eine globale Finanzkrise nicht einmal dann, wenn diese bereits begonnen hat? Das Problem ist nicht der Mangel an Informationen, sondern dass wir die verfügbaren Daten nicht richtig deuten. Zuverlässige Prognosen aber würden uns helfen, Zufälle und Ungewissheiten abzuwehren und unser Schicksal selbst zu bestimmen. Nate Silver zeigt, dass und wie das geht. Erstmals wendet er seine Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung nicht nur auf Wahlprognosen an, sondern auf die großen Probleme unserer Zeit: die Finanzmärkte, Ratingagenturen, Epidemien, Erdbeben, den Klimawandel, den Terrorismus. In all diesen Fällen gibt es zahlreiche Prognosen von Experten, die er überprüft – und erklärt, warum sie meist falsch sind. Gleichzeitig schildert er, wie es gelingen kann, im Rauschen der Daten die wesentlichen Informationen herauszufiltern. Ein unterhaltsamer und spannender Augenöffner!

Die Berechnung der Zukunft

Die Berechnung der Zukunft

Warum die meisten Prognosen falsch sind und manche trotzdem zutreffen - Der New York Times Bestseller

  • Author: Nate Silver
  • Publisher: N.A
  • ISBN: 9783453200487
  • Category:
  • Page: 654
  • View: 4969
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The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

  • Author: Nate Silver
  • Publisher: Penguin
  • ISBN: 1101595957
  • Category: Political Science
  • Page: 544
  • View: 1019
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One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller “Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.” —New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." —New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't

Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't

Based on the Book by Nate Silver

  • Author: Worth Books
  • Publisher: Open Road Media
  • ISBN: 1504043693
  • Category: Study Aids
  • Page: 30
  • View: 1138
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So much to read, so little time? This brief overview of The Signal and the Noise tells you what you need to know—before or after you read Nate Silver’s book. Crafted and edited with care, Worth Books set the standard for quality and give you the tools you need to be a well-informed reader. This short summary and analysis of The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver includes: Historical context Chapter-by-chapter summaries Important quotes Fascinating trivia Glossary of terms Supporting material to enhance your understanding of the original work About The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver: Drawing on groundbreaking research, The Signal and the Noise, written by the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight.com, examines how data has been used in prediction and forecasting, and how to find the true signals—the points that indicate that something will happen—amidst noisy and distracting data. Addressing different fields of forecasting and predictions—from politics to earthquakes to poker—Silver explores the reasons why some things are easier to forecast, like the weather, while others are so difficult, such as terrorism. From one of the country’s smartest thinkers. The Signal and the Noise provides vital insights into how to think about probability and predictions on the economy, climate change, sports, and other subjects that impact our lives. The summary and analysis in this ebook are intended to complement your reading experience and bring you closer to a great work of nonfiction.

Wirtschaftsprognose

Wirtschaftsprognose

Methoden und Probleme

  • Author: Kurt W. Rothschild
  • Publisher: Springer-Verlag
  • ISBN: 3642887171
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: 208
  • View: 8082
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USA

USA

Politik · Gesellschaft · Wirtschaft

  • Author: Hartmut Wasser
  • Publisher: Springer-Verlag
  • ISBN: 3663142809
  • Category: Science
  • Page: 366
  • View: 7580
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The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes

The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes

A 30 Minute Expert Summary

  • Author: N.A
  • Publisher: N.A
  • ISBN: 9781623150525
  • Category: Bayesian statistical decision theory
  • Page: 46
  • View: 4261
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The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

Die Gemeinwohl-Ökonomie

Die Gemeinwohl-Ökonomie

das Wirtschaftsmodell der Zukunft

  • Author: Christian Felber
  • Publisher: N.A
  • ISBN: 9783552061378
  • Category: Democracy
  • Page: 158
  • View: 6635
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Wirtschaftsprognose

Wirtschaftsprognose

eine Untersuchung ihrer Voraussetzungen und Möglichkeiten

  • Author: Oskar Morgenstern
  • Publisher: N.A
  • ISBN: N.A
  • Category: Business
  • Page: 128
  • View: 5298
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Von Nerds, Einhörnern und Disruption

Von Nerds, Einhörnern und Disruption

Meine irren Abenteuer in der Start-up-Welt

  • Author: Dan Lyons
  • Publisher: Redline Wirtschaft
  • ISBN: 386414924X
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: 304
  • View: 4365
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Er war 25 Jahre lang Journalist, dann stand er von einem Tag auf den anderen auf der Straße: Dan Lyons wurde mit 52 Jahren einfach aus dem Team wegrationalisiert. Was also tun? Da kam das Jobangebot von HubSpot, einem Bostoner Start-up, genau richtig: Sie bieten dem altgedienten Journalisten einen Stapel Aktien für den nicht näher bestimmten Job des »Marketingtypen«. Was soll da schon schiefgehen? Doch es kommt, wie es bei der Konstellation kommen muss: Schnell wird klar, dass bei seinem Job bei HubSpot ungefähr alles schiefläuft, was schieflaufen kann. Seine Kollegen sind im Schnitt halb so alt, statt Bürostühlen gibt es Sitzbälle, Spam wird als »liebenswerter Marketingcontent« bezeichnet und überhaupt erinnert die Atmosphäre bei HubSpot eher an einen immerwährenden Kindergeburtstag. Dass das nicht lange gutgehen kann, ist vorprogrammiert ... Dieses Buch bietet einzigartige Einblicke in die Start-up-Welt!

The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes

The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes

A 30 Minute Expert Summary

  • Author: N.A
  • Publisher: Callisto Media Inc
  • ISBN: 1623150531
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: N.A
  • View: 6595
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The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

Kleines Handbuch für den Umgang mit Unwissen

Kleines Handbuch für den Umgang mit Unwissen

  • Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • Publisher: Albrecht Knaus Verlag
  • ISBN: 364111991X
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: 128
  • View: 333
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Eine Anleitung zum Nach-, Quer- und Gegendenken »Ich weiß, dass ich nichts wei߫, erkannte bereits Sokrates. Wie wir aber mit dem Unbekannten, mit dem, was wir nicht wissen, faktisch umgehen und idealerweise umgehen sollten, das beschreibt der Risikoforscher und Essayist Nassim Nicholas Taleb in seinem Handbuch. Er enthüllt die Begrenztheiten unserer Datenverliebtheit genauso wie die folgenschweren Irrtümer und Voreingenommenheiten unseres Denkens. So zeigt er, wie uns Denkfehler, falsche Kategorien und blinde Flecken immer wieder in die Irre führen – und wie wir mit Unwissen gewinnbringend umgehen können. Denn: »Für den einen ist ein Irrtum bloß ein Irrtum, für den anderen ist er eine Information.«

Geschichte des Wissens

Geschichte des Wissens

Aus dem Amerikanischen von Anita Ehlers

  • Author: Charles Van Doren
  • Publisher: Springer-Verlag
  • ISBN: 3034860099
  • Category: Juvenile Nonfiction
  • Page: 524
  • View: 8481
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The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Nate Silver's Critically Acclaimed Book (the 30 Minute Expert Series)

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Nate Silver's Critically Acclaimed Book (the 30 Minute Expert Series)

  • Author: The 30 Minute Expert Series
  • Publisher: N.A
  • ISBN: 9781623151218
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: 32
  • View: 4099
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For a complete understanding of Nate Silver's Signal and the Noise, we strongly encourage you to purchase the original book titled The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't by Penguin Publishing Big data has arrived! Whether you're using that data to make a billion-dollar decision to merge two companies or to choose a team to win the World Series, how do you distinguish the signal (the truth) from the noise (our all-too-human impulse to make choices based on personal bias)? In his groundbreaking work The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver brings the complexities of statistics down to earth by using real-life examples of how we all make predictions and why those predictions are often wrong. The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is your expert guide to Nate Silver's main thesis that our decision making is filtered through our personal assumptions and beliefs as opposed to the truth of the data at hand. This concise companion details: * Nate Silver's journey from forecasting Major League Baseball players' performance to predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections * Both praise for and critical reactions to his ideas from such noted sources as the New York Review of Books and the Wall Street Journal * Key concepts, including analyzing prediction failures, practicing Bayesian thinking, and expanding self-awareness * Key terms, such as Bayes's theorem, with easy-to-understand definitions and examples * Recommended readings and a bibliography listing additional resources analyzing Silver's work and the phenomenon of big data The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is a timely guide to a topic that affects all our lives. From choosing stocks, to predicting wars, to making personal changes in light of climate change, The Signal and the Noise challenges both nations and individuals to make smarter choices. About the 30 Minute Expert Series Offering a concise exploration of a book's ideas, history, application, and critical reception, the 30 Minute Expert Series is designed for busy individuals interested in acquiring an in-depth understanding of seminal works. More than just a summary, the 30 Minute Expert Series offers detailed analysis, critical presentation of key ideas and their application, extensive reading lists for additional information, and a contextual understanding of the work of leading authors. Designed as a companion to the original work, the 30 Minute Expert Series enables readers to develop expert knowledge of an important work ... in 30 minutes.

Spieltheorie

Spieltheorie

  • Author: Ken Binmore
  • Publisher: N.A
  • ISBN: 9783150185902
  • Category:
  • Page: 272
  • View: 8470
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Was macht uns schlauer?

Was macht uns schlauer?

Die führenden Wissenschaftler unserer Zeit über neue Strategien, unser Wissen zu erweitern

  • Author: John Brockman
  • Publisher: S. Fischer Verlag
  • ISBN: 3104026610
  • Category: Social Science
  • Page: 512
  • View: 9468
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Der große Visionär, Wissenschaftsaktivist und Literaturagent John Brockmann hat den führenden Köpfen aus unterschiedlichsten Disziplinen die Frage gestellt, welche neuen wissenschaftlichen Konzepte und Ideen unser Wissen wesentlich erweitern werden. Hierbei sind die Naturwissenschaften ebenso wie die Philosophie, die Künste und die Rechts- und die Wirtschaftswissenschaften angesprochen. Eine spannende Debatte u. a. mit Daniel Kahneman, Richard Dawkins, Brian Eno, J. Craig Venter, Martin Rees, Ernst Pöppel, Gerd Gigerenzer, Nicholas Christakis, Lisa Randall, Hans Ulrich Obrist, Steven Pinker und George Dyson. »Man muss Brockman und den Wissenschaftlern dankbar sein. Viel zu selten werden Fragen diskutiert, die an unserem Selbstverständnis als Mensch rütteln oder Überzeugungen und mit ihnen Deutungshoheiten und Herrschaftsstrukturen in Frage stellen.« Deutschlandradio Kultur

Verbales Judo

Verbales Judo

Die sanfte Kunst der Überzeugung

  • Author: George J. Thompson,Jerry B. Jenkins
  • Publisher: MVG Verlag
  • ISBN: 3961212090
  • Category: Language Arts & Disciplines
  • Page: 320
  • View: 8847
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Mit diesem Longseller aus den USA lernt der Leser, wie er die größten Kommunikationsfehler durch einfache, leicht zu merkende Strategien vermeiden kann. Verbales Judo ist die Kunst, auf jeden Schlagabtausch perfekt vorbereitet zu sein. Effektiver zuhören und sprechen, andere durch Empathie für sich einnehmen, Konflikte entschärfen und einvernehmlich mit dem Partner oder dem Chef eine Lösung finden: All das und noch viel mehr verspricht George J. Thompson. Mit diesen Tipps muss man keinen Konflikt mehr scheuen!

Analysis of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media

Analysis of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media

  • Author: Milkyway Media
  • Publisher: Milkyway Media
  • ISBN: N.A
  • Category: Study Aids
  • Page: 38
  • View: 8047
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