Search results for: bayesian-estimation-of-dsge-models

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models

Author : Edward P. Herbst
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Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions.

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models

Author : Evren Caglar
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Koop, Pesaran and Smith (2011) suggest a simple diagnostic indicator for the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a DSGE model. They show that, if a parameter is well identified, the precision of the posterior should improve as the (artificial) data size T increases, and the indicator checks the speed at which precision improves. It does not require any additional programming; a researcher just needs to generate artificial data and estimate the model with different T. Applying this to Smets and Wouters?(2007) medium size US model, we find that while exogenous shock processes are well identified, most of the parameters in the structural equations are not. -- Bayesian Estimation ; Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models ; Identification

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

Author : Mátyás Farkas
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In this paper we adopt the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) estimator for DSGE models by implementing it into a state-of-the-art, freely available high-performance software package. We estimate a small scale textbook New-Keynesian model and the Smets-Wouters model on US data. Our results and sampling diagnostics con firm the parameter estimates available in existing literature. In addition we combine the HMC framework with the Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm which permits the estimation of DSGE models with ill-behaved posterior densities.

Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models

Author : Jagjit Chadha
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Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models

Author : Milan Bouda
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Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics

Author : Nigar Hashimzade
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This comprehensive Handbook presents the current state of art in the theory and methodology of macroeconomic data analysis. It is intended as a reference for graduate students and researchers interested in exploring new methodologies, but can also be employed as a graduate text. The Handbook concentrates on the most important issues, models and techniques for research in macroeconomics, and highlights the core methodologies and their empirical application in an accessible manner. Each chapter is largely self-contained, whilst the comprehensive introduction provides an overview of the key statistical concepts and methods. All of the chapters include the essential references for each topic and provide a sound guide for further reading. Topics covered include unit roots, non-linearities and structural breaks, time aggregation, forecasting, the Kalman filter, generalised method of moments, maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation, vector autoregressive, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium and dynamic panel models. Presenting the most important models and techniques for empirical research, this Handbook will appeal to students, researchers and academics working in empirical macro and econometrics.

Estimating the Parameters of a Small Open Economy DSGE Model

Author : Daniel O. Beltran
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"This paper estimates the parameters of a stylized dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model using maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, paying special attention to the issue of weak parameter identification. Given the model and the available data, the posterior estimates of the weakly identified parameters are very sensitive to the choice of priors. We provide a set of tools to diagnose weak identification, which include surface plots of the log-likelihood as a function of two parameters, heat plots of the log-likelihood as a function of three parameters, Monte Carlo simulations using artificial data, and Bayesian estimation using three sets of priors. We find that the policy coefficients and the parameter governing the elasticity of labor supply are weakly identified by the data, and posterior predictive distributions remind us that DSGE models may make poor forecasts even when they fit the data well. Although parameter identification is model- and data-specific, the lack of identification of some key structural parameters in a small-scale DSGE model such as the one we examine should raise a red flag to researchers trying to estimate--and draw valid inferences from--large-scale models featuring many more parameters"--Federal Reserve Board web site.

DSGE Models in Macroeconomics

Author : Nathan S. Balke
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This volume of Advances in Econometrics contains articles that examine key topics in the modeling and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Because DSGE models combine micro- and macroeconomic theory with formal econometric modeling and inference, over the past decade they have become an established framework for analyzing a variety of issues in empirical macroeconomics. The research articles make contributions in several key areas in DSGE modeling and estimation. In particular, papers cover the modeling and role of expectations, the study of optimal monetary policy in two-country models, and the problem of non-invertibility. Other interesting areas of inquiry include the analysis of parameter identification in new open economy macroeconomic models and the modeling of trend inflation shocks. The second part of the volume is devoted to articles that offer innovations in econometric methodology. These papers advance new techniques for addressing major inferential problems and include discussion and applications of Laplace-type, frequency domain, empirical likelihood and method of moments estimators.

A Small Open Economy as a Limit Case of a Two country New Keynesian DSGE Model

Author : Marcos Antonio Coutinho da Silveira
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Economic Dynamics in Discrete Time

Author : Jianjun Miao
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This book offers a unified, comprehensive, and up-to-date treatment of analytical and numerical tools for solving dynamic economic problems. The focus is on introducing recursive methods -- an important part of every economist's set of tools -- and readers will learn to apply recursive methods to a variety of dynamic economic problems. The book is notable for its combination of theoretical foundations and numerical methods. Each topic is first described in theoretical terms, with explicit definitions and rigorous proofs; numerical methods and computer codes to implement these methods follow. Drawing on the latest research, the book covers such cutting-edge topics as asset price bubbles, recursive utility, robust control, policy analysis in dynamic New Keynesian models with the zero lower bound on interest rates, and Bayesian estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The book first introduces the theory of dynamical systems and numerical methods for solving dynamical systems, and then discusses the theory and applications of dynamic optimization. The book goes on to treat equilibrium analysis, covering a variety of core macroeconomic models, and such additional topics as recursive utility (increasingly used in finance and macroeconomics), dynamic games, and recursive contracts. The book introduces Dynare, a widely used software platform for handling a range of economic models; readers will learn to use Dynare for numerically solving DSGE models and performing Bayesian estimation of DSGE models. Mathematical appendixes present all the necessary mathematical concepts and results. Matlab codes used to solve examples are indexed and downloadable from the book's website. A solutions manual for students is available for sale from the MIT Press; a downloadable instructor's manual is available to qualified instructors.

An Estimated DSGE Model For Turkey With A Monetary Regime Change

Author : Samir Huseynov
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Thesis (M.A.) from the year 2010 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: A-, Central European University Budapest, language: English, abstract: Using of developments of the last decade in Bayesian estimation, I estimate a small open economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equ ilibr ium (DSGE) model fo r Turkey. The thesis explicitly accounts for a monetar y regime change fro m an exchange rate targeting to an exp licit inflation targeting with a flexible exchange rate. In both regimes, I investigate the behavior of the monetary authority and the main driving forces of business cycles of key macro economy variables of the Turkish economy. My results can be summarized as follows. Monetary policy focused on the stabilizing of the nominal exchange rate in the exchange rate targeting regime. But, it is mainly concerned with the price stability in the inflation targeting reg ime. Monetary policy shocks were the main sources of the fluctuations under both regimes. However, the foreign output shock in the first regime and the real exchange rate shock in the second regime appeared as the additional sources of the fluctuations in the business cycles. The Central Bank of Tur key managed to neutralize inflatio nary sho cks and achieved stability in output and consumption after the regime change. Keywords: Turkey, Bayesian estimation, DSGE models, regime change

Handbook of Macroeconomics

Author : John B. Taylor
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Handbook of Macroeconomics surveys all major advances in macroeconomic scholarship since the publication of Volume 1 (1999), carefully distinguishing between empirical, theoretical, methodological, and policy issues. It courageously examines why existing models failed during the financial crisis, and also addresses well-deserved criticism head on. With contributions from the world's chief macroeconomists, its reevaluation of macroeconomic scholarship and speculation on its future constitute an investment worth making. Serves a double role as a textbook for macroeconomics courses and as a gateway for students to the latest research Acts as a one-of-a-kind resource as no major collections of macroeconomic essays have been published in the last decade

The Econometrics of DSGE Models

Author : Jesús Fernández-Villaverde
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In this paper, I review the literature on the formulation and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with a special emphasis on Bayesian methods. First, I discuss the evolution of DSGE models over the last couple of decades. Second, I explain why the profession has decided to estimate these models using Bayesian methods. Third, I briefly introduce some of the techniques required to compute and estimate these models. Fourth, I illustrate the techniques under consideration by estimating a benchmark DSGE model with real and nominal rigidities. I conclude by offering some pointers for future research.

Inflation versus Price Level Targeting

Author : Lukas Heim
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Lukas Heim evaluates the performance of a price-level targeting rule compared to that of a standard inflation targeting rule. The comparison is based on a medium-scale DSGE model which has been estimated based on state-of-the-art Bayesian methods. The model for the Swiss economy is an expanded version of the framework proposed by Galì and Monacelli (2005) as well as Monacelli (2005). It is enriched with habit formation in consumption, price indexation, labor market imperfections, and several additional structural disturbances. The results show that – exactly as expected – the volatility of inflation is quite significantly lower under the price-level targeting regime, whereas the volatility of the output gap is markedly higher conditional on either productivity or preference shocks. Therefore, the introduction of a price-level targeting regime would likely produce an increase in the volatility of real economic activity conditional on both supply-side and demand-side shocks. Since inflation and output are targeted simultaneously, none of the two policies is strictly dominant.

System Priors Formulating Priors about DSGE Models Properties

Author : Michal Andrle
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This paper proposes a novel way of formulating priors for estimating economic models. System priors are priors about the model's features and behavior as a system, such as the sacrifice ratio or the maximum duration of response of inflation to a particular shock, for instance. System priors represent a very transparent and economically meaningful way of formulating priors about parameters, without the unintended consequences of independent priors about individual parameters. System priors may complement or also substitute for independent marginal priors. The new philosophy of formulating priors is motivated, explained and illustrated using a structural model for monetary policy.

Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research

Author : Fabio Canova
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The last twenty years have witnessed tremendous advances in the mathematical, statistical, and computational tools available to applied macroeconomists. This rapidly evolving field has redefined how researchers test models and validate theories. Yet until now there has been no textbook that unites the latest methods and bridges the divide between theoretical and applied work. Fabio Canova brings together dynamic equilibrium theory, data analysis, and advanced econometric and computational methods to provide the first comprehensive set of techniques for use by academic economists as well as professional macroeconomists in banking and finance, industry, and government. This graduate-level textbook is for readers knowledgeable in modern macroeconomic theory, econometrics, and computational programming using RATS, MATLAB, or Gauss. Inevitably a modern treatment of such a complex topic requires a quantitative perspective, a solid dynamic theory background, and the development of empirical and numerical methods--which is where Canova's book differs from typical graduate textbooks in macroeconomics and econometrics. Rather than list a series of estimators and their properties, Canova starts from a class of DSGE models, finds an approximate linear representation for the decision rules, and describes methods needed to estimate their parameters, examining their fit to the data. The book is complete with numerous examples and exercises. Today's economic analysts need a strong foundation in both theory and application. Methods for Applied Macroeconomic Research offers the essential tools for the next generation of macroeconomists.

The Business Review

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Estimating a Stylized Fiscal Policy DSGE Model for Brazil

Author : Rodrigo Mendes Pereira
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This paper builds a small size dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with government, aiming to replicate key features of the Brazilian economy. I first calibrate and then I use Bayesian methods to estimate the model for Brazil, with 20 years of quarterly aggregate data. Contrary to the conventional knowledge, I find mixed evidence on the pro-cyclicality of the fiscal policy in Brazil. Moreover, the results suggest that tax rate changes have been used to counter changes in the level of government indebtedness, however in a small degree if compared to other international evidence.

Advances in Applied Economics Business and Development

Author : Qingyuan Zhou
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This four-volume-set (CCIS 208, 209, 210, 211) constitutes the refereed proceedings of the International Symposium on Applied Economics, Business and Development, ISAEBD 2011, held in Dalian, China, in August 2011. The papers address issues related to Applied Economics, Business and Development and cover various research areas including Economics, Management, Education and its Applications.

Solving and Estimating Indeterminate DSGE Models

Author : Mr. Roger Farmer
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We propose a method for solving and estimating linear rational expectations models that exhibit indeterminacy and we provide step-by-step guidelines for implementing this method in the Matlab-based packages Dynare and Gensys. Our method redefines a subset of expectational errors as new fundamentals. This redefinition allows us to treat indeterminate models as determinate and to apply standard solution algorithms. We provide a selection method, based on Bayesian model comparison, to decide which errors to pick as fundamental and we present simulation results to show how our procedure works in practice.