Search results for: bubbles-and-crashes

Bubbles and Crashes

Author : Brent Goldfarb
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Bubbles and non-bubbles across time -- Uncertainty and narratives -- Novices, naïfs, and biases -- When are there not bubbles? -- Recent and future bubbles -- Policy implications

Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes Second Edition

Author : Harold L. Vogel
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Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, and equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and can also be defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.

A Theory of Speculative Bubbles and Crashes A Study on Phase Transitions in Financial Markets with Networked Agents

Author : Taisei Kaizoji
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Most of us would accept that recent large economic fluctuations have been caused by crashes of speculative bubbles in asset markets. For example, few would disagree that the most important cause of the global financial crisis in 2008 was the collapse of an unprecedented bubble in U.S. housing markets. However, the reasons why bubbles frequently occur in various financial markets, and why bubbles collapse are not always well understood. The book provides a new theoretical explanation of bubbles and crashes to help answer questions relating to how asset bubbles come about, why they persist, and the causes of the subsequent crashes. In this innovative volume, Taisei Kaizoji proposes a stock market model in which noise traders and fundamentalists who follow the traditional asset pricing model coexist. A distinctive feature of this study is that the so called noise-trader's behavior is modeled in a framework of Keynes' beauty contest metaphor. The author elucidate a mechanism in which (i) noise-traders' herd behavior gives cause to a bubble, and (ii) their trading momentum prolongs the bubble, (iii) the bubble inevitably results in a crash, and (iv) the cycles of bubble and crash are repeated. The results give a possible theoretical solution to the equity premium puzzle. This model will deepen our understanding of the mechanism of bubbles and subsequent crashes and help to bring about an innovation in financial economics which allow us to consider the laws of capitalist economies in a new light.

Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets

Author : Stefan Palan
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This book describes a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets and explores the question whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and crashes. In the experiment, subjects were given the opportunity to trade in a stock market modeled after the seminal work of Smith et al. (1988). To account for the increasing importance of online betting sites, subjects were also allowed to trade in a digital option market. The outcomes shed new light on how subjects form and update their expectations, placing special emphasis on the bounded rationality of investors. Various analytical bubble measures found in the literature are collected, calculated, classified and presented for the first time. The very interesting new bubble measures "Dispersion Ratio", "Overpriced Transactions" and "Underpriced Transactions" are developed, making the book an important step towards the research goal of preventing bubbles and crashes in financial markets.

Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes

Author : Harold L. Vogel
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Despite the thousands of articles and the millions of times that the word 'bubble' has been used in the business press, there still does not appear to be a cohesive theory or persuasive empirical approach with which to study 'bubble' and 'crash' conditions. This book presents a plausible and accessible descriptive theory and empirical approach to the analysis of such financial market conditions. It advances such a framework through application of standard econometric methods to its central idea, which is that financial bubbles reflect urgent short side rationed demand. From this basic idea, an elasticity of variance concept is developed. It is further shown that a behavioral risk premium can probably be measured and related to the standard equity risk premium models in a way that is consistent with conventional theory.

Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes Second Edition

Author : Harold L. Vogel
File Size : 89.56 MB
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Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, and equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and can also be defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.

How Market Intervention Can Prevent Bubbles and Crashes

Author : Didier Sornette
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Asset Pricing Under Asymmetric Information

Author : Markus K. Brunnermeier
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The role of information is central to the academic debate on finance. This book provides a detailed, current survey of theoretical research into the effect on stock prices of the distribution of information, comparing and contrasting major models. It examines theoretical models that explain bubbles, technical analysis, and herding behavior. It also provides rational explanations for stock market crashes. Analyzing the implications of asymmetries in information is crucial in this area. This book provides a useful survey for graduate students.

Boombustology

Author : Vikram Mansharamani
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The new, fully-updated edition of the respected guide to understanding financial extremes, evaluating investment opportunities, and identifying future bubbles Now in its second edition, Boombustology is an authoritative, up-to-date guide on the history of booms, busts, and financial cycles. Engaging and accessible, this popular book helps investors, policymakers, and analysts navigate the radical uncertainty that plagues today’s uncertain investing and economic environment. Author Vikram Mansharamani, an experienced global equity investor and prominent Harvard University lecturer, presents his multi-disciplinary framework for identifying financial bubbles before they burst. Moving beyond the typical view of booms and busts as primarily economic occurrences, this innovative book offers a multidisciplinary approach that utilizes microeconomic, macroeconomic, psychological, political, and biological lenses to spot unsustainable dynamics. It gives the reader insights into the dynamics that cause soaring financial markets to crash. Cases studies range from the 17th Century Dutch tulip mania to the more recent US housing collapse. The numerous cross-currents driving today’s markets—trade wars, inverted yield curves, currency wars, economic slowdowns, dangerous debt dynamics, populism, nationalism, as well as the general uncertainties in the global economy—demand that investors, policymakers, and analysts be on the lookout for a forthcoming recession, market correction, or worse. An essential resource for anyone interested in financial markets, the second edition of Boombustology: Adopts multiple lenses to understand the dynamics of booms, busts, bubbles, manias, crashes Utilizes the common characteristics of past bubbles to assist in identifying future financial extremes Presents a set of practical indicators that point to a financial bubble, enabling readers to gauge the likelihood of an unsustainable boom Offers two new chapters that analyze the long-term prospects for Indian markets and the distortions being caused by the passive investing boom Includes a new foreword by James Grant, legendary editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer A comprehensive exploration of how bubbles form and why they burst, Boombustology, 2nd Edition is packed with a wealth of new and updated information for individual and institutional investors, academics, students, policymakers, risk-managers, and corporate managers alike.

Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets Volume 1

Author : E. Porras
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Understanding the formation of bubbles and the contagion mechanisms afflicting financial markets is a must as extreme volatility events leave no market untouched. Debt, equity, real estate, commodities... Shanghai, NY, or London: The severe fluctuations, explained to a large extent by contagion and the fear of new bubbles imploding, justify the newly awaken interest in the contagion and bubble dynamics as yet again the world brazes for a new global economic upheaval. Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets explores concepts, intuition, theory, and models. Fundamental valuation, share price development in the presence of asymmetric information, the speculative behavior of noise traders and chartists, herding and the feedback and learning mechanisms that surge within the markets are key aspects of these dynamics. Bubbles and contagion are a vast world and fascinating phenomena that escape a narrow exploration of financial markets. Hence this work looks beyond into macroeconomics, monetary policy, risk aggregation, psychology, incentive structures and many more subjects which are in part co-responsible for these events. Responding to the ever more pressing need to disentangle the dynamics by which financial local events are transmitted across the globe, this volume presents an exhaustive and integrative outlook to the subject of bubbles and contagion in financial markets. The key objective of this volume is to give the reader a comprehensive understanding of all aspects that can potentially create the conditions for the formation and bursting of bubbles, and the aftermath of such events: the contagion of macro-economic processes. Achieving a better understanding of the formation of bubbles and the impact of contagion will no doubt determine the stability of future economies – let these two volumes be the starting point for a rational approach to a seemingly irrational phenomena.

The Invisible Hands

Author : Steven Drobny
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Hedge fund managers who survived and profited through the 2008 financial crisis share their secrets In light of the colossal losses and amidst the resulting confusion that still lingers, it is time to rethink money management in the broadest of terms. Drastic changes still need to be made, and managers who actually made money during 2008 make for a logical starting place. This updated and revised edition of The Invisible Hands provides investors and traders with the latest thinking from some of the best and the most successful players in money management, highlighting the specific risk and return objectives of each, and discussing the evolution of certain styles and beliefs in money management. Divulges how top financial professionals are looking forward by thinking clearly, managing risk, and seeking a new paradigm of profit making opportunities in the post-crisis world Outlines investments and strategies for the rocky road ahead Gives guidance on how traditional investors such as pensions, endowments, foundations and family offices should rethink how they approach asset allocation and portfolio construction Written by respected industry expert Steven Drobny Page by page, the professionals found in this book reveal their own approaches to markets, risk, and the broader world in which we live, as well as their advice on how investors should be approaching money management in today's uncertain world.

Information Geometry and the Dynamic Detection of Financial Bubbles and Crashes

Author : Guilherme Demos
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Bubbles and Crashes

Author : Dilip Abreu
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Follow the Money

Author : Fulvio Corsi
File Size : 47.67 MB
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Financial Market Bubbles and Crashes

Author : Harold L. Vogel
File Size : 62.56 MB
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Economists broadly define financial asset price bubbles as episodes in which prices rise with notable rapidity and depart from historically established asset valuation multiples and relationships. Financial economists have for decades attempted to study and interpret bubbles through the prisms of rational expectations, efficient markets, equilibrium, arbitrage, and capital asset pricing models, but they have not made much if any progress toward a consistent and reliable theory that explains how and why bubbles (and crashes) evolve and are defined, measured, and compared. This book develops a new and different approach that is based on the central notion that bubbles and crashes reflect urgent short-side rationing, which means that, as such extreme conditions unfold, considerations of quantities owned or not owned begin to displace considerations of price.

Fixing the Game

Author : Roger L. Martin
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American capitalism is in dire straits, caught in a perilous pattern of increasing volatility, decreasing investor returns, and ongoing bad behavior by executives. And it’s getting worse. Since the turn of the twenty-first century, we’ve seen two massive value-destroying market meltdowns and a string of ethics breaches, including accounting scandals, options-backdating schemes, and the subprime mortgage debacle. Just what is going on here? Is it the inevitable decline of the American economy? Is it the new normal in a technology-enabled global marketplace? Or is it possible that the very theories we’ve embraced to underpin our capital markets are actually producing these crises? In Fixing the Game, Roger Martin reveals the culprit behind the sorry state of American capitalism: our deep and abiding commitment to the idea that the purpose of the firm is to maximize shareholder value. This theory has led to a massive growth in stock-based compensation for executives and, through this, to a naive and wrongheaded linking of the real market—the business of designing, making, and selling products and services—with the expectations market—the business of trading stocks, options, and complex derivatives. Martin shows how this tight coupling has been engineered and lays out its results: a single-minded focus on the expectations market that will continue driving us from crisis to crisis—unless we act now. Using the National Football League as his primary example, Martin illustrates that it is possible to take a much more thoughtful and effective approach than we now do to the intersection of the real and the expectations markets and to governance in general in the capital markets. Martin shows how we can act to end the destructive cycle, including: • Restructuring executive compensation to focus entirely on the real market, not the expectations market • Rethinking the meaning of board governance and role of board members • Reining in the power of hedge funds and monopoly pension funds Concise, hard-hitting, and entertaining, Fixing the Game advocates seizing American capitalism from the jaws of the expectations market and planting it firmly in the real market—and it presents the steps we must take now to do so.

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Asset Bubbles and Crashes

Author : Lisi Shi
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Bubbles and Crashes in a Behavioural Finance Model

Author : Paul De Grauwe
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The Edge of Chaos

Author : Bernice Cohen
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Spanning two centuries and across three continents (Europe, America and Asia), the author provides a fascinating history on some famous and not so famous financial events. Beginning with the 1720s Mississippi and South Sea Companies to the great global crashes of 1929 and 1987, Bernice Cohen provides us with a strategy for tracking market trends and cycles, and protecting our investments against the next financial crash.

Herd behavior bubbles and crashes

Author : Thomas Lux
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