Search Results for "the-signal-and-the-noise-why-so-many-predictions-fail-but-some-don-t"

The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't

  • Author: Nate Silver
  • Publisher: Penguin
  • ISBN: 1101595957
  • Category: Political Science
  • Page: 544
  • View: 1471
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"One of the more momentous books of the decade." -The New York Times Book Review Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.

Summary of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media

Summary of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise by Milkyway Media

  • Author: Milkyway Media
  • Publisher: Milkyway Media
  • ISBN: N.A
  • Category: Study Aids
  • Page: 38
  • View: 8956
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t (2012), considers the common shortcomings statisticians face when attempting to make predictions. While bad predictions can lead to setbacks and false beliefs, accurate predictions can advance scientific knowledge, government efficiency, the quality of education, and other social projects and goals… Purchase this in-depth summary to learn more.

The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes

The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes

A 30 Minute Expert Summary

  • Author: N.A
  • Publisher: Callisto Media Inc
  • ISBN: 1623150531
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: N.A
  • View: 9815
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The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes

The Signal and the Noise... in 30 Minutes

A 30 Minute Expert Summary

  • Author: N.A
  • Publisher: N.A
  • ISBN: 9781623150525
  • Category: Bayesian statistical decision theory
  • Page: 46
  • View: 6496
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The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Nate Silver's Critically Acclaimed Book (the 30 Minute Expert Series)

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes - The Expert Guide to Nate Silver's Critically Acclaimed Book (the 30 Minute Expert Series)

  • Author: The 30 Minute Expert Series
  • Publisher: N.A
  • ISBN: 9781623151218
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: 32
  • View: 1237
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For a complete understanding of Nate Silver's Signal and the Noise, we strongly encourage you to purchase the original book titled The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't by Penguin Publishing Big data has arrived! Whether you're using that data to make a billion-dollar decision to merge two companies or to choose a team to win the World Series, how do you distinguish the signal (the truth) from the noise (our all-too-human impulse to make choices based on personal bias)? In his groundbreaking work The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver brings the complexities of statistics down to earth by using real-life examples of how we all make predictions and why those predictions are often wrong. The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is your expert guide to Nate Silver's main thesis that our decision making is filtered through our personal assumptions and beliefs as opposed to the truth of the data at hand. This concise companion details: * Nate Silver's journey from forecasting Major League Baseball players' performance to predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections * Both praise for and critical reactions to his ideas from such noted sources as the New York Review of Books and the Wall Street Journal * Key concepts, including analyzing prediction failures, practicing Bayesian thinking, and expanding self-awareness * Key terms, such as Bayes's theorem, with easy-to-understand definitions and examples * Recommended readings and a bibliography listing additional resources analyzing Silver's work and the phenomenon of big data The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is a timely guide to a topic that affects all our lives. From choosing stocks, to predicting wars, to making personal changes in light of climate change, The Signal and the Noise challenges both nations and individuals to make smarter choices. About the 30 Minute Expert Series Offering a concise exploration of a book's ideas, history, application, and critical reception, the 30 Minute Expert Series is designed for busy individuals interested in acquiring an in-depth understanding of seminal works. More than just a summary, the 30 Minute Expert Series offers detailed analysis, critical presentation of key ideas and their application, extensive reading lists for additional information, and a contextual understanding of the work of leading authors. Designed as a companion to the original work, the 30 Minute Expert Series enables readers to develop expert knowledge of an important work ... in 30 minutes.

Open Innovation

Open Innovation

New Product Development Essentials from the PDMA

  • Author: Abbie Griffin,Charles H. Noble,Serdar S. Durmusoglu
  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
  • ISBN: 1118770854
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: 384
  • View: 8284
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A clear, practical guide to implementing Open Innovation for new product development Open Innovation: New Product Development Essentials from the PDMA is a comprehensive guide to the theory and practice of the Open Innovation method. Written by experts from the Product Development and Management Association, the book packages a collection of Open Innovation tools in a digestible and actionable format. Real-world case studies drawn from the authors' own successes and failures illustrate the concepts presented, providing accurate representation of the opportunities and challenges of Open Innovation implementation. Key tools are presented with a focus on immediate applications for business, allowing NPD professionals to easily discern where this cutting edge development method can push innovation forward. Open Innovation assumes that companies can and should use both internal and external ideas and paths to market, permeating the boundaries between firm and environment. Innovations transfer outward and inward through purchase, licensing, joint ventures, and spin-offs, allowing companies to expand beyond their own research and dramatically improve productivity through collaboration. PDMA Essentials provides practical guidance on exploiting the Open Innovation model to these ends, with clear guidance on all aspects of the new product development process. Topics include: Product platforming and idea competitions Customer immersion and interaction Collaborative product design and development Innovation networks, rewards, and incentives Many practitioners charged with innovation have only a vague understanding of the specific tools available for Open Innovation, and how they might be applied. As the marketplace shifts dramatically to keep pace with changing consumer behaviors, remaining relevant increasingly means ramping up innovation processes. PDMA Essentials provides the tools NPD practitioners need to implement a leading innovation method, and drive continued growth.

Democracy, Intelligent Design, and Evolution

Democracy, Intelligent Design, and Evolution

Science for Citizenship

  • Author: Susan P. Liebell
  • Publisher: Routledge
  • ISBN: 1136016406
  • Category: Science
  • Page: 136
  • View: 7776
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Should alternatives to evolution be taught in American public schools or rejected as an establishment of religion? Democracy, Intelligent Design, and Evolution argues that accurate science education helps shape a democratic temperament. Rather than defending against Intelligent Design as religion, citizens should defend science education as crucial to three aspects of the democratic person: political citizenship, economic fitness, and moral choice. Through an examination of Tammy Kitzmiller et al. v. Dover Area School District, contemporary political theory, and foundational American texts, this volume provides an alternative jurisprudence and political vocabulary urging American liberalism to embrace science for citizenship.

Modeling Techniques in Predictive Analytics with Python and R

Modeling Techniques in Predictive Analytics with Python and R

A Guide to Data Science

  • Author: Thomas W. Miller
  • Publisher: FT Press
  • ISBN: 013389214X
  • Category: Computers
  • Page: 448
  • View: 6280
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Master predictive analytics, from start to finish Start with strategy and management Master methods and build models Transform your models into highly-effective code—in both Python and R This one-of-a-kind book will help you use predictive analytics, Python, and R to solve real business problems and drive real competitive advantage. You’ll master predictive analytics through realistic case studies, intuitive data visualizations, and up-to-date code for both Python and R—not complex math. Step by step, you’ll walk through defining problems, identifying data, crafting and optimizing models, writing effective Python and R code, interpreting results, and more. Each chapter focuses on one of today’s key applications for predictive analytics, delivering skills and knowledge to put models to work—and maximize their value. Thomas W. Miller, leader of Northwestern University’s pioneering program in predictive analytics, addresses everything you need to succeed: strategy and management, methods and models, and technology and code. If you’re new to predictive analytics, you’ll gain a strong foundation for achieving accurate, actionable results. If you’re already working in the field, you’ll master powerful new skills. If you’re familiar with either Python or R, you’ll discover how these languages complement each other, enabling you to do even more. All data sets, extensive Python and R code, and additional examples available for download at http://www.ftpress.com/miller/ Python and R offer immense power in predictive analytics, data science, and big data. This book will help you leverage that power to solve real business problems, and drive real competitive advantage. Thomas W. Miller’s unique balanced approach combines business context and quantitative tools, illuminating each technique with carefully explained code for the latest versions of Python and R. If you’re new to predictive analytics, Miller gives you a strong foundation for achieving accurate, actionable results. If you’re already a modeler, programmer, or manager, you’ll learn crucial skills you don’t already have. Using Python and R, Miller addresses multiple business challenges, including segmentation, brand positioning, product choice modeling, pricing research, finance, sports, text analytics, sentiment analysis, and social network analysis. He illuminates the use of cross-sectional data, time series, spatial, and spatio-temporal data. You’ll learn why each problem matters, what data are relevant, and how to explore the data you’ve identified. Miller guides you through conceptually modeling each data set with words and figures; and then modeling it again with realistic code that delivers actionable insights. You’ll walk through model construction, explanatory variable subset selection, and validation, mastering best practices for improving out-of-sample predictive performance. Miller employs data visualization and statistical graphics to help you explore data, present models, and evaluate performance. Appendices include five complete case studies, and a detailed primer on modern data science methods. Use Python and R to gain powerful, actionable, profitable insights about: Advertising and promotion Consumer preference and choice Market baskets and related purchases Economic forecasting Operations management Unstructured text and language Customer sentiment Brand and price Sports team performance And much more

100+ management models

100+ management models

How to understand and apply the world's most powerful business tools

  • Author: Fons Trompenaars,Piet-Hein Coebergh
  • Publisher: Infinite Ideas
  • ISBN: 1909652806
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: 592
  • View: 1988
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100+ Management Models is an essential resource for managers at all levels. It gives an overview of each of the most important business models in eight categories: sustainability, innovation, strategy, diversity, customers, human resources, benchmarking and leadership and analyses their strengths and weaknesses.

It's Not the How or the What but the Who

It's Not the How or the What but the Who

Succeed by Surrounding Yourself with the Best

  • Author: Claudio Fernández-Aráoz
  • Publisher: Harvard Business Review Press
  • ISBN: 1625271530
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: 240
  • View: 1782
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Succeed by mastering the art of the who Why surround yourself with the best? Because it matters—in all aspects of life. In fact, in professional environments, getting people right—what global leadership authority Claudio Fernández-Aráoz calls “the art of great ‘who’ decisions”—marks the difference between success and failure. To thrive, you need to identify those with the highest potential, get them in your corner and on your team, and help them grow. Yet surprisingly very few of us are able to meet that challenge. This series of short and engaging essays outlines the obstacles to great “who” decisions and offers solutions to address them in a systematic way. Drawing from several decades of experience in global executive search and talent development, as well as the latest management and psychology research, Fernández-Aráoz offers wisdom and practical advice to improve the choices we make about employees and mentors, business partners and friends, top corporate leaders and even elected officials. The personal stories and cutting-edge studies described in the book will help you understand both your own failings and the external forces commonly at play in staffing decisions. The author shares concrete recommendations on how to select the best people, bring out their strengths, foster collective greatness in the groups you’ve assembled, and create not only better organizations but also a better society. Starting with the cases of Amazon pioneer Jeff Bezos and Brazilian tycoon Roger Agnelli and continuing with individual and corporate examples from around the world, Fernández-Aráoz paints a vivid picture of what great “who” decisions look like and presents a fresh and commanding argument about why they matter more than ever today.