Search Results for "uncertainty-the-soul-of-modeling-probability-statistics"

Uncertainty

Uncertainty

The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics

  • Author: William Briggs
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 3319397567
  • Category: Mathematics
  • Page: 258
  • View: 9251
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This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance." The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, such as out-of-the-box regression, cannot help in discovering cause. This new way of looking at uncertainty ties together disparate fields — probability, physics, biology, the “soft” sciences, computer science — because each aims at discovering cause (of effects). It broadens the understanding beyond frequentist and Bayesian methods to propose a Third Way of modeling.

Structural Changes and their Econometric Modeling

Structural Changes and their Econometric Modeling

  • Author: Vladik Kreinovich
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 3030042634
  • Category:
  • Page: N.A
  • View: 3869
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Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis

Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis

Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH

  • Author: Marc S. Paolella
  • Publisher: Wiley
  • ISBN: 1119431905
  • Category: Mathematics
  • Page: 896
  • View: 4925
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A comprehensive and timely edition on an emerging new trend in time series Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH sets a strong foundation, in terms of distribution theory, for the linear model (regression and ANOVA), univariate time series analysis (ARMAX and GARCH), and some multivariate models associated primarily with modeling financial asset returns (copula-based structures and the discrete mixed normal and Laplace). It builds on the author's previous book, Fundamental Statistical Inference: A Computational Approach, which introduced the major concepts of statistical inference. Attention is explicitly paid to application and numeric computation, with examples of Matlab code throughout. The code offers a framework for discussion and illustration of numerics, and shows the mapping from theory to computation. The topic of time series analysis is on firm footing, with numerous textbooks and research journals dedicated to it. With respect to the subject/technology, many chapters in Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis cover firmly entrenched topics (regression and ARMA). Several others are dedicated to very modern methods, as used in empirical finance, asset pricing, risk management, and portfolio optimization, in order to address the severe change in performance of many pension funds, and changes in how fund managers work. Covers traditional time series analysis with new guidelines Provides access to cutting edge topics that are at the forefront of financial econometrics and industry Includes latest developments and topics such as financial returns data, notably also in a multivariate context Written by a leading expert in time series analysis Extensively classroom tested Includes a tutorial on SAS Supplemented with a companion website containing numerous Matlab programs Solutions to most exercises are provided in the book Linear Models and Time-Series Analysis: Regression, ANOVA, ARMA and GARCH is suitable for advanced masters students in statistics and quantitative finance, as well as doctoral students in economics and finance. It is also useful for quantitative financial practitioners in large financial institutions and smaller finance outlets.

Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics

Beyond Traditional Probabilistic Methods in Economics

  • Author: Vladik Kreinovich
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 3030042006
  • Category:
  • Page: N.A
  • View: 7835
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Econometrics for Financial Applications

Econometrics for Financial Applications

  • Author: Ly H. Anh,Le Si Dong,Vladik Kreinovich,Nguyen Ngoc Thach
  • Publisher: Springer
  • ISBN: 3319731505
  • Category: Computers
  • Page: 1081
  • View: 7361
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This book addresses both theoretical developments in and practical applications of econometric techniques to finance-related problems. It includes selected edited outcomes of the International Econometric Conference of Vietnam (ECONVN2018), held at Banking University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam on January 15-16, 2018. Econometrics is a branch of economics that uses mathematical (especially statistical) methods to analyze economic systems, to forecast economic and financial dynamics, and to develop strategies for achieving desirable economic performance. An extremely important part of economics is finances: a financial crisis can bring the whole economy to a standstill and, vice versa, a smart financial policy can dramatically boost economic development. It is therefore crucial to be able to apply mathematical techniques of econometrics to financial problems. Such applications are a growing field, with many interesting results – and an even larger number of challenges and open problems.

Convex Models of Uncertainty in Applied Mechanics

Convex Models of Uncertainty in Applied Mechanics

  • Author: Y. Ben-Haim,I. Elishakoff
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISBN: 1483290972
  • Category: Mathematics
  • Page: 240
  • View: 2851
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Recognition of the need to introduce the ideas of uncertainty in a wide variety of scientific fields today reflects in part some of the profound changes in science and engineering over the last decades. Nobody questions the ever-present need for a solid foundation in applied mechanics. Neither does anyone question nowadays the fundamental necessity to recognize that uncertainty exists, to learn to evaluate it rationally, and to incorporate it into design. This volume provides a timely and stimulating overview of the analysis of uncertainty in applied mechanics. It is not just one more rendition of the traditional treatment of the subject, nor is it intended to supplement existing structural engineering books. Its aim is to fill a gap in the existing professional literature by concentrating on the non-probabilistic model of uncertainty. It provides an alternative avenue for the analysis of uncertainty when only a limited amount of information is available. The first chapter briefly reviews probabilistic methods and discusses the sensitivity of the probability of failure to uncertain knowledge of the system. Chapter two discusses the mathematical background of convex modelling. In the remainder of the book, convex modelling is applied to various linear and nonlinear problems. Uncertain phenomena are represented throughout the book by convex sets, and this approach is referred to as convex modelling. This book is intended to inspire researchers in their goal towards further growth and development in this field.

Journal of the American Statistical Association

Journal of the American Statistical Association

  • Author: N.A
  • Publisher: N.A
  • ISBN: N.A
  • Category: United States
  • Page: N.A
  • View: 553
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America's constitutional soul

America's constitutional soul

  • Author: Harvey Claflin Mansfield
  • Publisher: Johns Hopkins Univ Pr
  • ISBN: N.A
  • Category: Political Science
  • Page: 236
  • View: 7017
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Focusing on the elections of 1980, 1982, and 1984, Mansfield critiques contemporary conservatism for its ignorance of the political theory implicit in the Constitution. "Provides 'food for thought' for both 'left' and 'right,' and in particular for the American citizens about whom this book is concerned."--Bradley A. Kletscher, Constitutional Commentary. The Johns Hopkins Series in Constitutional Thought. Sotirios A. Barber and Jeffery K. Tulis, Series Editors.

Cost Engineering

Cost Engineering

A Publication of the American Association of Cost Engineers

  • Author: N.A
  • Publisher: N.A
  • ISBN: N.A
  • Category: Costs, Industrial
  • Page: N.A
  • View: 3987
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Quantitative Value

Quantitative Value

A Practitioner's Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors

  • Author: Wesley R. Gray,Tobias E. Carlisle
  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
  • ISBN: 1118416554
  • Category: Business & Economics
  • Page: 288
  • View: 6234
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A must-read book on the quantitative value investmentstrategy Warren Buffett and Ed Thorp represent two spectrums ofinvesting: one value driven, one quantitative. Where they align isin their belief that the market is beatable. This book seeks totake the best aspects of value investing and quantitative investingas disciplines and apply them to a completely unique approach tostock selection. Such an approach has several advantages over purevalue or pure quantitative investing. This new investing strategyframed by the book is known as quantitative value, a superior,market-beating method to investing in stocks. Quantitative Value provides practical insights into aninvestment strategy that links the fundamental value investingphilosophy of Warren Buffett with the quantitative value approachof Ed Thorp. It skillfully combines the best of Buffett and EdThorp—weaving their investment philosophies into a winning,market-beating investment strategy. First book to outline quantitative value strategies as they arepracticed by actual market practitioners of the discipline Melds the probabilities and statistics used by quants such asEd Thorp with the fundamental approaches to value investing aspracticed by Warren Buffett and other leading value investors A companion Website contains supplementary material that allowsyou to learn in a hands-on fashion long after closing the book If you're looking to make the most of your time in today'smarkets, look no further than Quantitative Value.